Iran Continues Meddling In Iraqi Affairs
Posted by N T Lihou at 11/3/2008 6:52 AM 
Categories: Globalization,American Politics,State Dept,UN,Dept of Defense,Iran,Information Operations,Israel,Middle East
Categories: Globalization,American Politics,State Dept,UN,Dept of Defense,Iran,Information Operations,Israel,Middle East
The Looming Crisis That Biden Talked About
Iran continues to pose problems for the stability of Iraq and now seems to be fractured in its approach. One approach is encouraging instability through the indirect actions of al-Sadr's militia and his political grandstanding. Although at one time al-Sadr had problems controlling his forces, today he exercises near total control. What is disturbing is the direct action that Iran now takes against Iraq as seen in the above report.
Giving the credit to Iran, there are those reporters and analysts who claim that Iraq situation has stabilized. The articles seem to glow with the generosity of Iran and downplays the actions of the Coalition Forces. One needs to examine the reasons for this supposed turn around by Iran.
Iranian Reasons For Change In Iraq
Iran has changed its profile in Iraq to get the U.S. forces out of the area. Having the Americans on its border creates all types of problems for the Islamic Republic. Iranian refugees, asylum seekers and defectors cross the Iraqi border seeking out American forces to give up information on Iran. This is unprecedented access to intelligence the U.S. has not had since the days of the Shah. The dissident forces in Iraq now feel bolstered by the "protection" that the Coalition Forces provide to protect the rebels' operations. Reporters now flock to the border area and report on the living conditions of those still in Iran.
Iran continues its nuclear ambition but now finds unprecedented scrutiny and a powerful intelligence apparatus at its door. Iran has operated under the radar for a number of years and has only had Israel making complaints about it meddling in Middle Eastern affairs. Because of the Iraq War, some light is now being shed on the unchecked influence that Iran wields. The issue of Iran usually now tops the discussions at the United Nations Security Council and even its staunchest supporters have had to reexamine the facts about Iran.
Iran knows the longer the Iraq War drags out the longer the Coalition and American forces will stay in the region. If Iran continues its operations against the forces in Iraq it will come under even more scrutiny and have to deal with global opinion. Since Iran contributed to the information operations against the U.S. it knows that public standing can go a long way in determining how it can operate.
Iran And American Politics
Iran needs to lower its profile in Iraq. This should not be interpreted as non-interference in Iraq. Iran now seeks to infiltrate the Iraqi military and government to ensure a favorable stance. Iran looks towards the U.S. presidential elections before it decides on its next actions. The Iranian regime knows how McCain will deal with its country but is unsure of what a Obama administration will be like. Obama has gone from "sitting down with Iran and no restrictions" to "all options, including the military is on the table." Iran will need to figure out which path Obama will pursue. As Biden has predicted, the Iranians will probably step up direct operations again to create U.S. casualties and destabilize the Iraqi government. This will force Obama's hand on whether he will pull the troops from Iraq or actually listen to the military commanders on how to handle the situation. One would expect Obama to capitulate and pull the troops out of Iraq giving the Iranian regime exactly what they want.
Conclusion
The Islamic Republic of Iran conducts operations at many levels and does not contribute to world stability without a strategic advantage to its own country. Believing that Iran is working for the betterment of the world demonstrates a stunning failure to comprehend the terror sponsoring nation's intentions. Until the world unites to deal with Iran, there can be no peace in the Middle East. Until the global citizens are informed of the conditions of life under an Iranian regime, there are those who will come to the defense of the rogue country. Until countries find alternative resources, money will have undue influence on Security Council members who will advocate on Iran's behalf. A globalized world necessitates that issues run deeper and are connected on levels that most will never realize. Let's hope the next administration employs individuals who are willing to examine issues below the surface.
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